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Tra Thi Trinh

Tra Thi Trinh

Research Fellow, PhD (Development Economics) National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies; MSc (Economics) Aalto University School of Business

tratrinh@nus.edu.sg
Risk Perception Net Zero Coastal Adaptation

Dr Tra Thi Trinh joined IPUR in 2022 as a Research Fellow in the Environment and Climate pillar. Her research interest lies in environmental economics, behavioural economics and development economics using applied econometrics. Her focus areas during her PhD involved climate and migration. Dr Tra’s current projects at IPUR including analysis of the World Risk Poll and risk perceptions studies on climate and environment. She received her PhD in Development Economics from the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Japan, and her master’s degree in Economics from the Aalto University School of Business in Finland.

published papers

  1. Trinh, T. T., & Munro, A. (2023). Integrating a choice experiment into an agent-based model to simulate climate-change induced migration: The case of the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam. Journal of choice modelling, 48, 100428. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100428
  2. Trinh, T.T. and Munro, A. (2023a) ‘Integrating a choice experiment into an agent-based model to simulate climate-change induced migration: The case of the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam’, Journal of Choice Modelling, 48, p. 100428. doi:10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100428.
  3. Tra Thi Trinh & Alistair Munro, 2022. "Climate change and migration decisions: A choice experiment from the Mekong Delta, Vietnam," GRIPS Discussion Papers 22-07, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

ongoing projects

  1. "Trust, Norms and Coastal Adaptation" Approximately 600 million people in Asia are already at risk from coastal flooding. As sea levels rise over the course of the 21st century, coastal floods will become more frequent, inundate larger areas, and affect more people. By 2100, sea-level is expected to rise between 30 cm (under a low emissions scenario) and 1m (based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, a high emissions scenario). In Vietnam, where 12 million people in coastal provinces are exposed to intense flooding, a 1m rise in sea level would partially inundate 11% of the 100-million population and 7% of agricultural land. Exposure is even higher in the Philippines, one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries, where 60% of the population live in coastal areas and the number of people exposed to floods is expected to rise to 15 million by 2030. In Singapore, one-third of the population reside on land less than 5m above sea level. The whole of the city-state is considered to be at high risk of coastal flooding, with storm surges expected to cause floods at least once a decade.This research project seeks to address these gaps in the literature by conducting a comparative multi-country study in locations with high coastal flood hazard which exhibit variation in terms of current levels of coastal protection infrastructure and levels of generalised trust in government. The study will assess the role of trust, social norms and other factors in influencing three levels of protective action: individual, community and public policy. An intervention in the form of a structured engagement workshop involving the Investigators, representatives of the public and experts/decision-makers will be tested for its impact on trust and behavioural intentions.The project aims to build resilience to coastal flooding by developing a comprehensive understanding of public concerns and intentions and supporting the adoption of evidence-based public engagement in decision-making processes to engage the public in designing and implementing appropriate risk management actions.
  2. "Project Wavelength" To improve communications, we must first understand how different people think about risk and what motivates these differences. Project Wavelength seeks to undercover the fundamental differences on how people perceive risk so that we can help attune communicators to the frequency of their audiences.30 years ago, Professor Paul Slovic and his colleagues showed how dread of an incident and uncertainty are two factors which would lead to heightened perceptions of risk.Building on this seminal work, Project Wavelength will uncover the additional factors which drive risk perceptions in today’s digital world. Through this research project, IPUR aims to acquire a revised understanding of the factors and dimensions that have become essential to how people—both the public and experts—perceive risk in Asia today.We believe these insights will help policy makers devise more effective interventions and risk communication strategies. IPUR also aims to foster greater risk literacy by enabling individuals to identify risk issues of particular concern and take appropriate preventive or protective actions.The project is led by Professor Leonard Lee, Dr Olivia Jensen and Dr Carolyn Lo, and collaborators from Tsinghua University in China and the Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology in South Korea.In this research project, we aim to acquire a revised understanding of the factors and dimensions that have become essential to how people—both the public and experts—perceive risk in Asia today.
  3. "Getting in Net Zero" In 2022, Singapore announced its goal to achieve Net Zero by 2050 and introduced a Long-Term Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS). Achieving this target requires effective international cooperation and collective action from all sectors of society. This project consists of three studies supporting Singapore’s Net Zero journey:This survey aimed to understand Singaporeans' perceptions on the Net Zero target and necessary actions. The findings help decision-makers identify opportunities, address misperceptions, and consider citizens' priorities and concerns. This study involved collaboration between NUS, MSE, and SUTD in 2023-2024 to design and execute the study, and to highlight its key messages.
    1. Public perception survey report – This survey aimed to understand Singaporeans' perceptions on the Net Zero target and necessary actions. The findings help decision-makers identify opportunities, address misperceptions, and consider citizens' priorities and concerns. This study involved collaboration between NUS, MSE, and SUTD in 2023-2024 to design and execute the study, and to highlight its key messages.
    2. How-to-Guide for reducing individual carbon footprint – To complement the survey report, IPUR developed a How-to-Guide to help help individuals align their daily habits with Singapore’s Net Zero ambitions. Distributed at the 15 May event, the guide provides practical advice on transportation, lifestyle choices, consumption habits, and energy use. Supported by data and evidence, each section concludes with actionable steps for individuals to reduce their carbon footprint, supporting both local and global Net Zero goals
    3. Systematic literature review on public support for Net Zero – Given the urgency to halve global carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 from 2010 levels (IPCC, 2018), the 2020s are a critical decade for climate action. This study conducts a systematic literature review of 168 scientific papers published since 2010 to examine the drivers of public support for Net Zero-related policies. Understanding these drivers is essential for fostering societal transformation and behavior change needed to effectively mitigate climate change risks over the next decade.The "Getting to Net Zero" project provides insights and practical tools to support Singapore's goal of achieving Net Zero by 2050. By engaging the public, offering actionable guidance, and understanding support drivers, this project aims to facilitate an inclusive and effective transition to a sustainable future.
  4.  "Risk Barometer" The IPUR Singapore Risk Barometer Report is a flagship initiative to gain deeper insight into the risks that Singaporeans feel are the greatest concerns in their daily lives. It spotlights the needs, expectations and demands of society and serves as an annual scorecard on the management of these risks.The report aims to provide valuable information to government, companies and the media regarding the public’s perceptions of these issues and their expectations about whether sufficient action is being taken to address them.Understanding the public perception of risks and their views on who is responsible for managing those risks is key to developing new and robust solutions for a healthier, happier, safer Singapore.In conjunction with the report, two academic papers are being prepared to delve deeper into the results and provide more insightful implications.
  5. "Individual Climate Action" This project focuses on inspiring and empowering individuals to take meaningful climate action in their daily lives by raising awareness, offering practical solutions, and building a community of environmentally-conscious citizens who are committed to reducing their carbon footprint and promoting sustainability.
  6. "World Risk Poll and disaster risk information" Employing the 2021 World Risk Poll dataset, this study examines disaster risk information from the perspective of the individual. It investigates whether, and through which channels, members of the public seek information about natural hazards. This ‘demand-side’ approach to disaster risk communication complements the ‘supply-side’ tracking of early warning systems, which governments undertake under the Sendai Monitoring Framework.
  7. "Risk networks and profiles of segments of media-reported risks in Singapore" Leveraging on the Risk Barometer data, this study delves into the public perceptions of media-reported risks in Singapore. We explore the networks of Singapore public’s concerns regarding various major media-reported risks. We also aim to identify key subgroups of populations in terms of their specific patterns in responding to media-reported risks. Identifying those distinct profiles will inform tailored communication strategies that cater to the unique needs of each group.

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