Trust, Norms and Coastal Adaptation

Approximately 600 million people in Asia are already at risk from coastal flooding. As sea levels rise over the course of the 21^st century, coastal floods will become more frequent, inundate larger areas, and affect more people. By 2100, sea-level is expected to rise between 30 cm (under a low emissions scenario) and 1m (based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, a high emissions scenario). In Vietnam, where 12 million people in coastal provinces are exposed to intense flooding, a 1m rise in sea level would partially inundate 11% of the 100-million population and 7% of agricultural land. Exposure is even higher in the Philippines, one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries, where 60% of the population live in coastal areas and the number of people exposed to floods is expected to rise to 15 million by 2030. In Singapore, one-third of the population reside on land less than 5m above sea level. The whole of the city-state is considered to be at high risk of coastal flooding, with storm surges expected to cause floods at least once a decade.

This research project seeks to address these gaps in the literature by conducting a comparative multi-country study in locations with high coastal flood hazard which exhibit variation in terms of current levels of coastal protection infrastructure and levels of generalised trust in government. The study will assess the role of trust, social norms and other factors in influencing three levels of protective action: individual, community and public policy. An intervention in the form of a structured engagement workshop involving the Investigators, representatives of the public and experts/decision-makers will be tested for its impact on trust and behavioural intentions.

The project aims to build resilience to coastal flooding by developing a comprehensive understanding of public concerns and intentions and supporting the adoption of evidence-based public engagement in decision-making processes to engage the public in designing and implementing appropriate risk management actions.