Global temperatures are increasing at an unprecedented rate – we have seen them rise by almost 2°C from preindustrial levels. This phenomenon known commonly as “global warming” has wide ranging effects and has been attributed to the increased frequency and severity of environmental catastrophes such as floods and droughts. 2°C may not seem like much, but even this small increase causes megacities like Lagos in Nigeria to experience blistering heatwaves of up to 40.6°C a hundred times more frequently than before. Like other cities in tropical and coastal regions where humidity is higher, Singapore feels the effect of rising temperatures as well.
Increased temperatures are both a physical and emotional cause for concern, with threats ranging from heat-related injuries to skin problems. In Singapore, 150 cases of heat stroke occur yearly. This presents a growing health threat to the tropical city, given that it has an ageing population which is less able to endure the heat.
In 2016 National Skin Centre (NSC) saw an increase in outpatient clinic attendances to 304,00, up from 263,000 in 2008. This correlates to rising temperatures and increasingly brutal hot seasons, and there is a possibility that these have worsened existing skin conditions or given rise to new ones. Skin conditions do not only have skin-deep consequences, either. Ailments such as eczema can easily affect self-esteem and can cause social withdrawal. Some studies have even gone so far as to examine academic performance and productivity in relation to humidity, and found that students are less able to perform in exams under hotter conditions. These conditions are further aggravated by high temperatures. To meet the rising demand of dermatological services, NSC will have a new building added by 2022, boosting its capacity by 50 percent.
In response to this, governments across the globe, including Singapore, have committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions following guidelines laid out by the 2015 Paris Agreement, and limiting the global temperature increase in this century to 2°C above preindustrial levels. This translates to taking collective action and implementing stricter policies as well as pushing for the use of green technologies to manage greenhouse gas emission levels. Ideally, this would have emissions peak in 2050 and then decline. However, with our current emission levels, we are well on our way to exceeding the temperature increase limits, and could reach a 1.5°C increase as early as 2030.
Global issue with global efforts
Not all hope is lost. Some countries have made their mark in the forefront of climate action. Morocco for example, with its new flagship project – the world’s largest concentrated solar power plant (also called the Noor power plant), can provide electricity of up to 510MW, which is set to provide 650,000 local people with electricity from dawn until three hours after sunset.
Morocco has also committed to making 42% of its energy production renewable by the end of 2020, and to increase this share of renewable energy to 52% in 2030. Other countries and cities have also adopted various approaches on their part, such as phasing out of fossil fuels for Oslo’s district heating system, upgrading public transport infrastructure in Copenhagen and subsidising the production and use of electric vehicles in India.
Singapore has likewise followed suit. A strong public transport infrastructure and culture of recycling has contributed to developing the public’s interest in the issue of climate change. According to the Climate Action Tracker, Singapore initiated a Zero-waste campaign in 2019 and also implemented carbon taxes for industrial facilities, which penalise such companies for producing excessive greenhouse gas emissions. Since March, Singapore District Cooling Pte Ltd has also commissioned a network of underground district cooling operations which could potentially save enough energy to power 24,000 three-room HDB units. These initiatives are part of Singapore’s strong efforts to fulfil its commitments made in the Paris Agreement. However, much work remains to be done.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
In 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established, marking mankind’s dedication to tackling climate change. Formed as a part of the United Nations, it aims to evaluate climate information and risks, and provide options for governments to adapt to and lessen the harms caused by climate change. It publishes reports every seven years that detail the science, impacts and policies that can be adopted. The IPCC 5th Assessment was released in 2014. This series of reports also includes a Summary for Policymakers which aims to facilitate integrated discussion of alternative climate policy goals and their respective practical implications. While it prioritises the integrity of climate science, this approach doesn’t come without shortfalls.
Challenges of understanding and relaying climate knowledge
Climate science warrants scientific sophistication, and scientists working with and at IPCC naturally face significant challenges in presenting information on such a complex topic. Communicating to the public is particularly difficult as climate science is plagued with uncertainty and accompanying contextual knowledge is often needed to be provided as well.
1) Issues of complexity
While we call them “natural phenomena”, many of these processes occur because of the interaction between many moving parts ranging from natural mechanisms like the water cycle to man-made causes like pollution. This makes explaining the direct cause of many phenomena difficult. Thankfully, the IPCC has thus far managed to project our emission levels based on certain climate models that factor in these mechanisms. The IPCC reports have achieved a considerable feat in presenting complex information with diagrams and illustrations containing 7 to 8 variables in a single chart. While it is important to retain the integrity of climate science and ensure that models are well represented, this makes the explanation and communication of these concepts even more challenging. Below are some sample diagrams and graphs from the report:
2) Uncertainty in climate science
The Earth’s natural climate cycle, or scientifically known as the natural variability, has often been argued as the culprit behind climate change in the long-drawn and contentious global debate surrounding the issue. Natural variability can be understood as the natural cycle of earth’s processes that leads to rises and falls in global temperatures. In other words, changes which happen regardless of human input. Climate research today has delved even deeper into understanding whether natural variability is the sole cause of climate change, and looking into how human action is related to causing climate change as well. Unfortunately, research is not without its uncertainties. Climate science is tricky exactly because so many factors can contribute to climate change, and some of these factors may have evaded scientific notice altogether. Furthermore, climate studies are subject to the uncertainty of timescales. Some examples of these uncertainties are the rate of heat exchange between waterbodies or the rate at which sea levels will rise from glacial melt which are estimated predictions based on current data. These processes are understandably hard to observe, and can take years to research when we need the results now so that they can help us come up with better solutions for climate change.
3) Contextual and guided information
There are 195 countries in the world, each with differing needs and ambitions. Conveying the effects of climate change and its risks is particularly difficult because these communications have to be tailored to each and every specific country. The most high-impact measures are also the most life-changing and even controversial ones: going meatless, travelling car-free, demanding one less long-haul flight and bearing one less child for instance. But these are measures that have not been widely discussed, particularly because each poses a concern or even a threat for the development for each country. For example, in Singapore, our total fertility rate has dipped to an alarming level of 1.16 per in 2017, and we have been struggling with issues of job competition between foreigners and locals. Having one less child each potentially worsens the countries’ political and social issues. Same goes with going meatless – which has job implications for entire supply chains and industries, from cattle herders to chefs. The challenge here is reconciling these national interests with appropriate climate mitigation measures. Communicating these challenges effectively will require appropriate context as well as accurate and fundamental understanding of the different countries and their challenges, and what their needs and limitations are in addressing climate change.
Tackling the larger root of the problem
According to the fifth assessment report, keeping to the terms of the Paris Agreement requires the adoption of technology such as Bioenergy Carbon Capture Storage (BECCS), which can capture carbon and store it elsewhere permanently, in the 2nd half of the century. This must be accompanied by rapid improvements in energy efficiency, and an increase in shares of zero- and low-carbon energy supply from renewables. Currently, greenhouse gas emissions are dominated by electricity and energy use (30%), transport (14%) and agricultural (12%) sectors according to Climate Watch, with China, United States, India, Russia and Indonesia as the largest greenhouse gas emitters.
The fifth assessment report also highlighted that low-income countries contribute to emissions particularly in agricultural, forestry and other land use sectors, while high-income countries contribute to emissions largely from energy supply and industrial sectors. Currently, countries across the world are tackling various larger-emitting sectors. For example, Indonesia, as the largest emitter in the agricultural sector, has proposed plans for afforestation and reduced deforestation. Similarly, China contributes significantly to the electricity and energy use sector and has taken steps towards increasing shares in renewable energy. For Singapore, limited alternatives for renewable energy meant diverting our attention to improving energy efficiency in all sectors, be it household, industrial or public, of our economy. Energy efficiency initiatives in Singapore can be as simple as keeping indoor temperatures in air-conditioned places at 24°C or higher or encouraging the use of more energy efficient appliances through mandatory energy labelling for household appliances.
The IPCC reports on all, if not most of the sectors that contribute to climate change, and subsequently proposes mitigation measures across these sectors. Some of these measures include investing in urban infrastructure to encourage modal shifts away from vehicular transportation, substituting energy sources with renewable energy or low-carbon sources, employing more sustainable forest or cropland management methods, restoring organic soils, and phasing out of fossil fuel power generation.
Next steps for our government
The IPCC has proposed highly effective and important guidelines to inform policies, but many countries and individuals still have not adopted these recommendations. The Lloyd’s Register Foundation Institute for the Public Understanding of Risk (IPUR) has a mission to bridge the gap between what the public understands, and what is being relayed by organisations or institutions. With this goal in mind, IPUR has embarked on projects focused on climate and weather-related risks pertinent to Singapore, such as floods, urban heat and haze. Through the course of our research, we have interviewed people from all walks of life. Some have expressed their concern for the fragility of our environment, and have been dutifully addressing this climate issue through personal efforts – educating their family members, recycling, taking public transport, so on and so forth. While many expressed interest in caring for the environment, many still do not take action and slip through the cracks. This leads to crucial questions on how can society can be kept abreast on climate-related information and what can be done to gather support and attention on the issue.
In the adoption of national level strategies on climate change mitigation, governments must garner support and cooperation from their people and commit to more effective use of resources. More importantly, steps must be taken to prioritise climate change as an issue so that people can be better prepared and educated to deal with it. Countries such as Morocco and India that have proactively taken measures to deal with climate change should be seen as prime examples of the benefits of turning to more sustainable solutions and reducing the demands placed on the environment.
